Threat Brief NCAA Final Four 2025

Brief Overview

Event Details

What: 2025 NCAA Final Four and National Championship for Men’s Basketball

Where: Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas

When: April 5th and 7th 2025

Threat Snapshot

The venue will be configured to hold approximately 72,000 fans, with many VIPs in attendance (including corporate executives, politicians, major donors, and celebrities). There will also be major crowds attending the March Madness Music Festival and related celebratory events.

The influx of spectators greatly increases the risk of petty crimes, while the symbolic weight of the event elevates the potential for unrest and targeted violence.

Location security impact: higher probability of unrest, petty crime, and targeted violence affecting site security than normal operations.

Executive protection impact: elevated risk of travel disruption, petty crimes, and targeted violence affecting VIPs.

BaseScore Breakdown

As of March 2025, San Antonio has a citywide BaseScore of 49.

• Approximately 28% of the city’s crimes are violent offenses. 
  
  • Simple Assaults are the most frequent violent crime (18% of all crime for the city). 
• Security teams are cautioned that San Antonio has high rates of vehicle related crimes and that extra care should be taken when parking.
  
  • Between 1/1/24 and 3/13/25, Base Operations assessed 29,102 Thefts from Vehicles and 18,510 Vehicle Thefts.

‍Within a one mile radius of the Alamodome, the BaseScore is 71. 

• The venue is adjacent to the city’s busy Downtown area and the Hemisfair Civic Park (which contains the Tower of the Americas).
• It’s also situated between multiple high-risk neighborhoods: Denver Heights, Knob Hill, Five Points, Cattleman’s Square, and Prospect Hill. 
  
  • The BaseScores for these five neighborhoods range between 82 and 89. 

Top Threats

The threat landscape for this event is driven by four main factors:

1. Potential for unrest
2. Increase in petty crimes
3. Threat actor groups
4. Targeted violence

Potential for Unrest

• Base Operations reviewed 13 protest events in San Antonio from 1/1/25 and 2/28/25. The protests largely revolved around conditions for workers (including those working at NCAA events) and ICE deportations (San Antonio has a large population of foreign-born residents and vibrant immigrant communities).
• Readers are also advised that there has been increased political discord and protests nationwide regarding the Trump administration’s executive orders limiting the rights of the TGNCNB communities (Transgender, Gender Non-Confirming, and Non-Binary).
  
  • The NCAA’s updated policies prohibiting trans women from competing on women’s teams may draw both protestors and counterprotestors to the event. 

Increase in Petty Crimes

• The Final Four and Championship games are expected to bring $440 million into San Antonio’s economy, in-part from the influx of tourists. Large crowds will likely attract petty criminals wishing to engage in pickpocketing and petit larceny. 
• Tailgating events and increased nightlife activities will also likely fuel an increase in Drug and Alcohol Violations. 
  
  • Between 1/1/24 and 3/13/25, 52% of crimes within San Antonio took place during the evening and night. This proportion will likely increase due to celebratory events after the games. 

Threat Actor Groups

• Security teams are advised that the large crowds associated with major NCAA events and their highly televised nature can make them attractive targets for threat actor groups (including Domestic Violent Extremists and Foreign Terrorist Organizations). 
• On March 15th, it was reported that US and Iraqi forces killed the Islamic State’s chief of global operations. This, combined with recent US strikes on the Houthis, may serve as a catalyst for retaliatory attacks. 

Targeted Violence

• Copycat attacks on executives: Ongoing media coverage of Luigi Mangione has sustained the increased risk of copycat attacks on corporate executives.
• Sporting VIPs and gambling violence:  Basketball players and coaching staff are also at risk of violence due to the gambling and betting surrounding the NCAA tournament. 

Recommendations

• Travel disruption: In addition to travel delays caused by large crowds, readers are cautioned that San Antonio’s downtown area is currently experiencing significant amounts of construction and road closures. 
  
  • Security teams should plan multiple emergency egress routes and consider travel routes that circumvent the city’s downtown area.
  • Base Operation’s comprehensive coverage of San Antonio can help analysts plan routes that avoid high-risk areas. 
• Terrorism: There have been multiple terrorist attacks involving vehicles in recent months. It’s recommended that security teams bolster vehicle ramming countermeasures and keep personnel behind anti-vehicle barriers at all times.
• Unrest: Due to the elevated risk of unrest events, as well as the presence of large crowds, security teams are advised to allocate additional personnel and overtime hours to sites within the San Antonio areas. 
  
  • Crowd control strategies should also be prepared and practiced. 
  • It’s also advised to harden perimeter security due to increased risk of trespassers. 
• Security strategy: San Antonio is a repeat location for major NCAA basketball events. Therefore, security personnel should keep detailed logs during the games and prepare a comprehensive debrief to inform future security posturing. 
  
  • Base Operations’ dashboard can also be utilized for after-action reporting by assessing the impact of the games on crime rates within the city.   

Additional Resources

• Official NCAA guidance on restricted items and security measures can be found here. The Alamodome also has facility specific rules. 
• Contact information for the FBI’s San Antonio Field Office can be found here.
• For information on reporting suspicious activity within San Antonio, please access this Department of Homeland Security website.  

The city’s website for street closures and parking facilities can be found here.