Base Operations Insights: 2023 Turkish Election Threats

The upcoming Turkish elections on May 14^th are being monitored by companies around the world for their geopolitical impact as well as for potential short-term disruption to business. In the days leading up to the election, Base Operations analyzed Ankara and Istanbul during the 2018 election year in order to shed light on areas of each city where activity could be anticipated.

Bottom Line Up Front: 

• The 2018 election period saw spikes in politically motivated mob violence for Ankara and Istanbul, the two cities analyzed for this report.
• In the capital city of Ankara these incidents were concentrated in the district of Cankaya and Kecioren.
• In Istanbul these incidents were more frequent and more dispersed, taking place in the districts of Zeytinburnu, Esenler, Kagithane, Sisli, Umraniye, and the neighborhoods of Esentepe and Okmeydani
• Incidents in both cities were concentrated near election centers and voting facilities both leading up to and shortly following the previous election.  Spikes in similar incidents occurred during 2019 local elections.
• Given the patterns of activity in the previous two election periods, it is reasonable to prepare for similar activity leading up to and following the election dates of May 14^th and May 28^th (If a second voting period is needed).  Should extraordinary circumstances occur during or following this election, additional caution should be taken in areas near voting facilities.

 
Ankara

April 1, 2018 – July 31^st, 2018

The three months leading up to the previous Turkish elections in June 2018 saw a rise in peaceful protests, demonstrations requiring intervention by police, and Mob violence in various districts throughout Ankara.  The events were driven primarily by:

• Labor Groups - Former public servants who were dismissed from duties with recent legislative decrees gathered in the Mesrutiyet neighborhood of Ankara province's Cankaya district consistently in the months leading up to and following the elections
• Political groups

• HDP (Peoples Democratic Party) 
• MHP (Nationalist Movement Party)
• CHP (Republican People’s Party)
  

The weeks leading up to and days immediately following the election saw elevated levels of protest activity and mob violence as compared to the six-year average.

Protests requiring intervention were largely tied to public workers who were dismissed by legislative decrees, when they tried to stage protests in Cankaya.  This group protested consistently through the late fall and activity was largely focused in Cankaya.

Incidents of mob violence were politically motivated and spread out between three areas of the city.  These incidents predominantly targeted HDP election facilities and party offices.

• 82% of all protest activity during this period required intervention by police (103/125 events),  up from the six-year average of 62%
  

• June saw 8 events recorded as Mob Violence, all geared towards various political parties.  This is a 142% increase from the six-year monthly average of 3.3 events per month‍

The districts where this activity most commonly occurred:

• Cankaya District – Often Yuksel Street.  
• Cankaya is home to many government buildings, including the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, as well as nearly all foreign embassies to Turkey. Çankaya is a cosmopolitan district and considered the cultural and financial center of Ankara
• Kecioren District
• Ankara-Konya intercity road in Ankara province

Istanbul  

April 1, 2018 – July 31^st, 2018

Istanbul saw a consistent volume of peaceful protests, an increase in protests requiring intervention, and an increase in instances of mob violence leading up to and immediately following the 2018 election.

Istanbul saw a consistent volume of peaceful protests, an increase in protests requiring intervention, and an increase in instances of mob violence leading up to and immediately following the 2018 election.

Protests requiring intervention spanned various causes and actor groups, while mob violence was largely politically motivated.  Most reported attacks were acting against the HDP.

• 89% of all protests during this period were peaceful
• While there was a steady increase in protests requiring intervention leading up to the 2018 election, the 12 incidents in the month of June are only 33% higher than the five-year monthly average
• The 14 incidents of mob violence recorded during the month of the election reflect a 1500% increase of the five-year monthly average of one event

The districts where these events most commonly occurred include:

• Zeytinburnu
• Esenler
• Kagithane
• Sisli
• Umraniye
• Neighborhoods of Esentepe
• Neighborhoods of Okmeydani

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Incident Timelines
‍

Incidents of Note - Ankara

May 18th 2018 — HDP’s election campaign stand was attacked by a nationalist group in Yuksel street in Cankaya.

May 20th 2018 — HDP’s election campaign stand attacked by a nationalist group in Yuksel Street, Cankaya.

May 26th 2018 — A group of SP members were physically attacked by a group of 7 MHP members while hanging party banners as a part of the election campaign. 15 SP members were beaten during the attack in which metal sticks were used.

June 1st 2018 — An unknown number of protesters including a parliament member from the opposition HDP party protested in Cankaya, Ankara at the place where a protester was killed by police 5 years earlier. Speakers at the event demanded that those responsible for the murder be punished.

June 6th 2018 — Group of armed people with makeshift weapons attacked the HDP’s campaign booth in Cankaya District.

June 7th 2018 — Group of armed people with makeshift weapons attacked the HDP’s campaign booth in Cankaya District.

June 7th 2018 — Rioters physically assaulted a member of the opposition HDP party and wounded 3 colleagues in Ankaras Eryaman neighborhood. Attack occurred after victims dismantled an election stall at a nearby location and were headed to their car.

June 8th, 2018 — Rioters attacked the HDP’s campaign booth in Ankara city.

June 8th, 2018 — Locals armed with makeshift weapons attacked HDP election campaign in the Eyaman region of Ankara’s Etimesgut district.

June 24th, 2018 — Rioters destroyed cars belonging to members of the opposition (HDP) party and attempted to attack the party’s office in the Kecioren district.

June 24th, 2018 — Members of the CHP gathered in front of the CHP’s HQ after election results were announced to protest the leaders of the CHOP for not doing their jobs.

Incidents of Note - Istanbul

June 2^nd, 2018 - A group of people attacked the CHP's campaign booth in Umraniye district of Istanbul province with makeshift weapons

June 2^nd 2018 - A group of people armed with makeshift weapons attacked the HDP's campaign booth in Umraniye district of Istanbul province

June 2^nd 2018 - A group of people armed with makeshift weapons attacked the HDP's office set up for the elections in Tuzla district of Istanbul province

June 8^th 2018 - On 8 June 2018, an unknown number of high school students demonstrated in Kadikoy (Istanbul) to demand a freer political climate in Turkey. Police dispersed the event, detaining approximately 30 participants and wounding an unknown number of them. Among the arrested were students as well as passersby who attempted to prevent police from beating protesters. At least one student also reported being beaten at the police station which the protesters were brought to.

June 17^th 2018 - A group of people attacked the HDP's campaign booth in Buyukada of Istanbul province on Sunday morning, 17 June 2018. 2 civilians from the surrounding area were lightly injured as they attempted to stop them.

June 24^th 2018 - A group of rioters broke into the HDP's election office in Sisli district of Istanbul province, causing material damage on Sunday, 24 June 2018.

June 24^th 2018 - On 24 June 2018, an unknown number of HDP supporters gathered in Istanbul's Sultangazi district to celebrate the party's result at Turkey's general election. Police dispersed the event with pepper gas and rubber bullets. Demonstrators responded by throwing rocks at police.

June 24^th 2018 - A group of rioters attacked the HDP's district HQ shortly after the voting period ended in Esenler district of Istanbul province

June 24^th 2018 - On 24 June 2018, a brawl took place between supporters of the ruling AKP party and supporters of various opposition parties in front of a voting precinct in Istanbul's Okmeydani neighborhood. Police intervened to separate the two sides. It seemed that the reason for the fight was the local election commission's refusal to allow supporters of the opposition to observe the vote count.

June 24^th 2018 - On 24 June 2018, an unknown number of demonstrators protested in front of a voting precinct in Istanbul's Sultangazi district after hearing reports that 6 ballots had been carried out of the precinct by unidentified people. Police used pepper gas to disperse the gathering.

June 24^th 2018 - On 24 June 2018, a group of approximately 50 people physically assaulted a group of HDP members and supporters including a party lawyer in Istanbul's Buyukcekmece district. A number of the victims were taken to a nearby hospital following the incident.

June 24^th 2018 - A group of rioters attacked the HDP's district HQ shortly after the voting period ended in Sultanbeyli district of Istanbul province

June 24^th 2018 - On 24 June 2018, a brawl took place between an unknown number of MHP and HDP party supporters in Istanbul's Zeytinburnu district. The fight occurred after MHP supporters attempted to physically remove HDP members from an electoral commission at a local school.

June 24^th 2018 - A group of rioters attacked the HDP's district HQ shortly after the voting period ended in Umraniye district of Istanbul province

June 24^th 2018 - On 24 June 2018, a group of AKP supporters physically assaulted an electoral commission member from the Iyi Party in a school in Istanbul's Kagithane district. The attack occurred after the Iyi party member refused to accept an incorrectly filled out ballot.

June 24^th 2018 - On 24 June 2018, members of the ruling AKP party attacked an office of the opposition HDP party in Istanbul's Esentepe neighborhood. A few people inside were lightly injured when the attackers broke the office's windows. HDP supporters called the police who arrived and removed the AKP members from the area.

June 24^th 2018 - A group of rioters broke into the HDP's election office in Esenyurt district of Istanbul province, causing material damage