The Base Operations team brings you the most-current security assessments for the 2024 Paris Olympics. This report, originally published on June 25th, is updated to reflect the most current security assessments. The security environment is fluid as the situation from the attack on France's rail network is still evolving and facts are continuing to emerge.
Overview
The Olympics are intended to foster global unity and friendly competition among nations. However, the high degree of media attention, large crowds, presence of dignitaries and VIPs, and symbolism of the Olympics make the games an attractive target for an array of threat actors. This year’s games also take place in the backdrop of major conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. The recent assassination attempt on former President Trump has also increased fears of attacks by lone actors. Despite this elevated threat landscape, you can ensure a safe and enjoyable Olympic experience through a number of practical steps.
Key Event Information
The 2024 Summer Olympics will take place between July 26th and August 11th.
The Paralympics will subsequently run from August 28th until September 8th.
Events will mainly be spread across Paris and its periphery (e.g., Versailles and Vaires-sur-Marne).
There are also activities in Lyon, Nantes, Saint-Étienne, Bordeaux, Marseille, Nice, Châteauroux, Villeneuve-d'Ascq (near Lille), and Tahiti.
Further information on Olympic locations can be found here and here. Key venues for the Paralympics can be viewed here.
The number of permitted spectators1 and other aspects of the games, such as venues2, are subject to change due to the evolving threat landscape.
The opening day of the Olympics has already experienced a security incident. France's high-speed rail network was hit with a coordinated arson attack, severely disrupting transit and stranding travelers.3 This is a developing story. At the time of publication, there is no information about the responsible actors. The Atlantique, Nord, and Est TGV lines were impacted by the attacks. A fourth attack on the southeast network at Vergigny was foiled. The disruption is expected to have a limited impact on the opening ceremony and there are no known injuries at the time of publication
The opening ceremony will not take place in a stadium, but in boats along a 3.7 mile (~6 km) stretch of the River Seine. 300,000 spectators are expected to attend and line both banks of the river. Outside of the large volume of attendees, the unprecedented nature of this ceremony presents a number of major security challenges.5
Security personnel will have to cover an extended stretch of diverse urban terrain; including countless windows, rooftops, and other vantage points.
Unlike a typical VIP motorcade, the boats move slowly and cannot easily change direction if an attack occurs.
An infographic of the route can be found here. Readers are also advised to take advantage of this interactive map published by the French government.
2024 Paris Summer Olympics: Venues, Relevant Infrastructure, and Points of Interest
Previous Incidents at Olympic Games
Deadly attacks have occurred at past Olympic games:
During the 1972 Olympics in Munich, members of the Israeli team were held hostage by the Islamic terrorist group Black September. Black September’s goal was to secure the release of 200 Palestinian prisoners6
Two Israelis were killed during the initial hostage taking at their apartments within the Olympic Village. Nine more died during a failed rescue mission by West German Police.
A pipe bomb went off at Centennial park during the 1996 Olympics in Atlanta. One person was killed and 111 were wounded. The loss of life would’ve been higher had the bomb not been detected by a security guard.
The perpetrator, Eric Rudolph, subsequently bombed two abortion clinics and a gay bar between 1997 and 1998.
At two of these bombings, Rudolph left secondary explosive devices intended to kill first responders arriving at the scene.7
During the 2008 Beijing Olympics, there were two lethal incidents.8
On August 9th, an American was killed by a knife attack. The perpetrator, Tang Yongming, subsequently committed suicide near the scene of the crime. There is no known nexus between the perpetrator and any terrorist groups.
On August 13th, a bomb killed two people in Qinhuangdao (near Beijing). The intent behind the bombing is still unknown.
The Turkestan Islamic Party (a separatist group in China), conducted a series of terrorist attacks in China in the months leading up to the Olympics and threatened public transportation related to the Games6.
Security Measures and Parisian Crime
Security perimeters will be established in Paris beginning on July 18th7, alongside counterterrorism measures such as restricted areas, AI-enhanced surveillance, counter-snipers and vehicle prohibitions8. Major travel disruptions and delays are expected along the Seine. Readers are advised that a pass is required to access many areas along the river and that the process to get one can take several days.
There will also be a surge in police, military, and private security forces. France alone is expected to deploy 80,000 combined personnel per day from these sectors,(45,000 of which are police and gendarmes), with other nations contributing material support, personnel, and intelligence9. Paris will see its largest military encampment since World War II, enabling 10,000 soldiers to respond anywhere in the city within 30 minutes.
Although terrorism is a major concern for authorities, it’s also important to keep the threat of petty criminals in mind. Crime in Paris is largely characterized by theft, and visitors should be wary of pickpockets, especially in crowded areas, such as pedestrian malls, train stations, and the metro. The influx of tourists and elevated emotions will likely increase drug & alcohol violations and other petty crimes.
Theft is the most commonly reported crime in Paris, with more than 112,000 incidents reported in 2023.
Threat Actors
Analysis of open-source intelligence (OSINT) and data within Base Operations’ proprietary platform indicates that ISIS and Russia are two of the most prominent threat actors related to the Summer Olympics.
Russia
In response to Russia’s Olympic participation ban and France’s support of Ukraine, the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center assesses that Russia will engage in disinformation campaigns to scare celebrants10.
Mandiant, a cybersecurity subsidiary of Google, assesses that Russian operators will likely conduct cyber espionage and intelligence operations11. Additionally, operators may engage in cyber attacks against operational systems and critical infrastructure that could threaten physical security.
In June, a Russian man from eastern Ukraine was arrested for allegedly plotting a bomb attack against the Summer Olympics. He was detected, in part, after severely burning himself while preparing explosive materials12. It’s unclear if this actor has ties to any state or terrorist group.
On July 21st, a Russian chef in Paris was arrested for planning a “large-scale” destabilization plot. The suspect’s name has not been made public yet. A raid on the suspect’s apartment led to the recovery of a document linking him to the FSB (Federal Security Service); Russia’s main intelligence agency and successor to the KGB. Although it is not believed that the suspect was planning a terrorist attack, he is being investigated for sharing “intelligence with a foreign power with a view to provoking hostilities in France.” According to French officials, other Russian individuals have been arrested for attempting to spread disinformation regarding the Olympics. Russia is also believed to have engaged in heavy disinformation campaigns that targeted French voters during the recent snap elections.
ISIS
ISIS13 (the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) has a history of conflict with France. Some major incidents include:
On November 13th, 2015, a Belgian ISIS cell killed approximately 130 people and injured 416 others with firearms and suicide bombs in Paris. The coordinated attack took place across multiple locations, including at the Stade de France during an international football match.
On July 14th, 2016, an extremist drove a cargo truck down Nice’s pedestrian promenade. This attack resulted in the deaths of 86 people and the injury of 434 others.
A month before this, a police officer and his partner were stabbed to death in Magnanville by an ISIS sponsored assailant.
On December 11th, 2018, a terrorist who pledged allegiance to ISIS killed 5 people and wounded another 11 at a Christmas market in Strasbourg.
On December 3rd, 2023, a man inspired by ISIS killed one person and injured two others near the Eiffel Tower14.
ISIS has been involved in several recent high-profile global incidents
On March 22nd, an ISIS branch (Islamic State – Khorasan Province or ISIS-K) attacked the Crocus City Hall music venue in Moscow, Russia. The attack resulted in approximately 146 deaths and injured over 550 people.
On March 26th, in response to the Moscow attack, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that ISIS-K attempted several plots in France within recent months15.
In early April, ISIS released propaganda threatening football championship matches in Europe16.
On May 22nd, French authorities arrested an 18 year old suspected of preparing a terrorist attack on the Summer Olympics on behalf of ISIS.17
On June 11th, it was reported that 8 suspected ISIS members were arrested in New York City, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles.18
In mid-April, an individual with alleged ISIS ties was also arrested in Baltimore.19
On June 23rd, a branch of ISIS is believed to have conducted an attack on churches and synagogues in Dagestan (Southern Russia), leaving 19 dead.
On July 19th, it was reported that French police and officials were trying to rapidly resolve their intelligence blindspots when it comes to ISIS-K. Since the March 26th attack in Moscow, French personnel have been conducting outreach and interviews to try to gain insight into the organization and any potential threats to the Olympics. Russia is one of the best positioned countries to conduct intelligence operations against ISIS-K and Central Asian terror cells. Due to Russo-French tensions, however, intelligence sharing has been limited between the countries.
Lone Actors
On July 13th, Thomas Matthew Crooks attempted to assassinate former President Donald Trump at a political rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Former President Trump was wounded, two rally attendees were critically injured, and another attendee was killed while protecting his family. Preliminary information from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) suggests that Crooks’ actions weren’t politically motivated. Rather, he may have been seeking notoriety and Trump’s rally near his home provided an opportunity to gain attention.
Although this incident isn’t directly related to the Olympics, readers are reminded that the Games have massive global viewership and symbolic value that can attract lone actors (e.g., Eric Rudolph at the 1996 Atlanta Olympics). Additionally, the incident at Butler is still recent and may inspire copycat behavior to those wishing to gain attention for themselves or their cause by carrying out violence.
In addition to the 12/3/23 attack at the Eiffel Tower, there have been multiple lone actor attacks in France involving bladed within the past 13 months. On October 13th, 2023, for example, a French teacher was stabbed to death by a Chechen man believed to be an Islamic radical. The stabbing occurred less than a week after the 10/7 attack on Israel.
Readers may benefit from this publication on the sequencing of terror attacks, with the caveat that the research took place outside of a French cultural context.
There is limited research on lone actors (or “lone wolves”), making it difficult to draw generalizations and highlight patterns. Lone actors can be particularly worrisome as they may not necessarily communicate their intent or views to anyone, therefore maintaining greater secrecy than cells and organized groups. However, as most are driven by a cause or ideology, they may seek out like minded people, have a presence on Alt-Tech social media platforms, or visit websites flagged for extremist content. Additionally, unlike a group, lone actors have to conduct all of their preparatory activity by themselves and are limited to their own skills and resources. Although this type of threat actor shouldn’t be underestimated, they are not beyond detection, are at multiple disadvantages, and can still be foiled by many of the measures used to harden soft targets.
Unrest in France and Contributing Factors:
Outside of external threat actors, France has domestic issues related to separatist movements (e.g., Corsica and New Caledonia20) and ultra-right extremism.21
Although France’s snap elections concluded without a major security incident, the country is left with a divided government. The post-election transition period and political gridlock caused by the lack of a majority will likely be a distraction to French officials as the Olympics are occurring.
Due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, France has also experienced an uptick in Islamophobic and anti-Semitic incidents. In May, French security forces killed a man who was trying to set fire to a synagogue in Rouen and then pulled a knife on the officers.
Israeli athletes participating in the Games have already received a number of death threats. As a result, they will receive an unprecedented security detail that includes Shin Bet agents. Some of the threatening messages made references to the 1972 Munich Massacre.
Outside of the conflict in Gaza, tensions have escalated in the Red Sea region. On July 20th, Israel air forces struck the Yemini port of Hodeidah, killing 3 and injuring 87. The strike was in response to a fatal Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv and is Israel’s first attack in Yemen since 10/7, raising concerns of another war front opening up in the wider region.
Leveraging Base Operation’s platform25, analysts were able to assess 11,914 unrest events in France between 1/1/23 and 5/24/24. Some of the key insights that were derived include:
10,732 peaceful protests (~90% of all events).
888 events since October 7th have been related wholly or partially to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. 835 of these events (or ~94%) have been peaceful.
480 unrest events occurred in Paris.
396 (or 82.5%) of these events were peaceful.
The 3rd, 4th, 7th, and 8th Arrondissements had the highest risk for unrest activity.
The 4th Arrondissement is the city’s top district for unrest events. It’s the site of Notre-Dame de Paris and a number of places with immense historical significance. It also has a large LGBTQIA+ and Jewish community presence.
The 7th Arrondissement is the second highest district for unrest events. It’s home to major landmarks such as the Eiffel Tower, Invalides, Palais Bourbon (where the French National Assembly is located), and Pont Alexandre III. Additionally, multiple government agencies are headquartered there (e.g., the Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs).
Of the 181 unrest events in Corsica, 118 (or 65%) were peaceful.
Between 1/1/23 and 5/24/25, Base Operations assesses that there were 1,182 unrest events in France involving violence, property destruction, or police intervention.
Areas of Paris colored by Threat Level for unrest activity. 45 unrest events occurred within the 7th Arrondissement (nearly ~10 of the 480 assessed). 271 (or ~56%) took place within the 4th Arrondissement.
Unrest activity is heavily concentrated along the Seine River, which is home to many landmarks and major cultural institutions. Several Olympic venues will also be located along or near the River.
Paris Unrest: Jan 1 - May 24, 2024
There were 60 unrest events within 1.5 miles of the Arc de Triomphe. 50 of these events were peaceful protests. There were also five protests requiring intervention, four violent demonstrations, and one attack. The attack was the 12/3/23 terrorist incident, during which a tourist was killed and two others were injured by an attacker who pledged allegiance to ISIS.
Lyon’s 1st and 2nd Arrondissements have the highest risk for unrest activity.
Between 1/1/23 and 5/22/24, Lyon experienced 151 unrest events. 107 of these events (~70%) were peaceful. The remaining 44 were involved violence, property destruction, or police intervention.
Recommendations
Public safety and security professionals are advised:
Outside of the Olympic games, cultural institutions and nightlife establishments may host thematic events that will attract large crowds. A list of Cultural Olympiad events can be found here. July 14th is Bastille Day, which will also contribute to large crowds and the number of high-risk events across France. Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as Hamas and Israel, is ongoing
Although terrorist groups may attempt to use firearms and explosives, these actors have resorted to more widely available means of violence such as bladed weapons and vehicles.
In response to a terror alert or kidnapping, French authorities will activate the 197 hotline. If you have any pertinent information, please call the number to reach specialized investigators.
English proficiency in France can vary based on region, age group, and industry. The country’s overall English proficiency score is Moderate.26 It’s recommended that security teams incorporate personnel with French language skills and cultural insights.
Members of the public attending the games are advised
Report any suspicious activity to law enforcement by calling 17 or 112. Those who are deaf or hard of hearing can call, text, or fax 114.
Consult State Department advisories and guidance, such as this recent alert.
Preplan multiple travel routes to events and stay aware of emergency exits at venues.
Memorize some key phrases in French to use in case of an emergency. A helpful list can be found here.
Limit exposure to pickpockets by keeping valuables including phones, wallets, cash and passports in zippered pockets or bags in front of your body. Beware of distraction techniques assailants use to mast their activities.
The high volume of attendees carrying cellphones can cause poor data service and disrupt navigation tools, such as your GPS. Be sure to download offline maps ahead of time and consider purchasing a compass or downloading a reliable compass widget.
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