The 60th Presidential Inauguration is scheduled to take place on January 20th, 2025. It will be preceded by the Congressional Certification of Electoral Votes votes on January 6th. Both events are designated as National Special Security Events (NSSE) by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which means that the US Secret Service (USSS) will act as the lead agency for coordinating security measures with its federal, state, and local partners.
Outside of these key events, those operating within the DMV region (DC-Maryland-Virginia) can expect both unrest and a number of celebratory events throughout January. The first inauguration of Donald Trump in 2017 was met with protests and rallies across the US, most notably the Women’s March on Washington (which occurred on 1/21/17). Outside of the DMV area, President Elect Trump’s properties in New York City (NYC) and Mar-a-Lago will likely be focal points of activity. Although these activities will likely be peaceful in nature, large crowds can cause disruptions, be targeted by threat actors, or attract counter-demonstrations.
There have been 35 unrest events within a 0.25 mile radius of Trump Tower (NYC) between 1/1/22 and 12/22/24. These activities were generally peaceful; however, 8 required police intervention. Trump Tower is also located in proximity to other sites of significance that can attract protest activity; namely, Rockefeller Center, Times Square, and Grand Central Station. The site has a permanent New York City Police Department (NYPD) presence, generally composed of members of the Counterterrorism Division.
2025 marks the first time the January 6th certification has been designated a NSSE and was done upon the request of DC’s Mayor (Muriel Bowser). This reflects the historical significance of the January 6th, 2021 attack on the Capitol, as well as continued security concerns of unrest and extremist groups mobilizing on the anniversary of January 6th.
Post-Election season activities, in general, are unfolding in an elevated and dynamic threat landscape, both domestically and internationally. Adversarial nation states such as Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China pose a significant cybersecurity, espionage, and disinformation threat. Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs), especially ISIS, are also a resurging concern. Domestically, the 2024 Presidential campaign season saw two assassination attempts against President-Elect Trump whereas New Year’s Day 2025 was marked by a terrorist attack in New Orleans and a possible terrorism incident in Las Vegas.
Note: The information contained within this assessment is preliminary and subject to change. Base Operations analysts will update the contents closer to Inauguration Day. Readers are encouraged to consult trusted news sources regularly for updated information.
Schedule of Events
Security preparations for the Congressional Certification of Electoral Votes and Inauguration are already underway. Those operating in DC can expect closures in the vicinity of the White House, National Mall, and Capitol Hill. Lafayette Square (adjacent to the White House north lawn) and the sidewalks around the White House are already partially closed. Readers are advised to subscribe to Alert DC for notifications from the city’s public safety agencies. Status and alert information for the city’s transit authority (WMATA) can be found here.
Below are a list of significant events surrounding the Inauguration, as well as information on Inauguration Day itself. Readers are advised that all activities, as well as the key ceremonies themselves, are subject to change. These events can be expected to have VIPs and or cause disruptions to travel due to enhanced security measures.
For those with security operations near these activities, it is suggested to plan alternative travel routes to avoid crowds and road closures. Security teams are also advised to prepare for the presence of unruly groups, counter-protests, and a politically charged atmosphere. Although the activities and their participants will overwhelmingly be non-violent, the symbolic weight of a presidential inauguration may also attract individuals and groups with extremist views.
Those traveling to DC are also advised that they may have difficulty reserving accommodation, if they have not done so already, as many facilities will be fully booked throughout January.
This Inauguration Day also falls on Martin Luther King Jr. Day. There may be additional activities in honor of Dr. King, as well as rallies in support of social justice causes, that will add to the large crowds already expected in the DMV region.
Pre-Inagural Events
On January 6th, a joint session of Congress will certify the results of the 2025 presidential election. Vice President Kamala Harris, as President of the Senate, will preside over the process at the Capitol.
Readers are advised that some participants and alleged participants of the January 6th riots in 2021 have expressed their intent to visit DC during the Inauguration. Others have been invited as guests by politicians. The presence of these individuals will likely be a point of contention and potential catalyst for demonstrations. The Department of Justice (DOJ) has responded that allowing the return of some of these individuals may place the lives of Capitol Police personnel at risk.
Previous Base Operations analysis indicates that the Proud Boys, Oathkeepers, and Three Percenters were heavily impacted by post January 6th law enforcement activity. All three groups have had a dramatic decrease in the number of public events they’ve led or attended. The Patriot Front, which had a limited presence during the riots, has maintained a consistent public presence from 2022 to present. Its leadership also remained intact after 1/6/21.
Readers are advised, though, that there are indications that the Proud Boys are revamping their recruitment efforts in preparation of a 2nd Trump Administration and the hope of widespread January 6th related pardons. The organization's identity is heavily rooted in the idea of acting as Trump’s unofficial protectors and enforcers.
The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) has a factsheet on the Patriot Front here. ACLED has a primer on the Proud Boys that can be accessed here.
On January 9th, the state funeral of former President Jimmy Carter will be held in DC. Between January 7th and 9th, Carter’s body will lie in state within the Capitol Rotunda. At the time of reporting, the Capitol will be open to the public for those wishing to pay their respects.
Additional security measures have been prepared for the funeral in light of the New Orleans terrorist attack that occurred on 1/1/25.
On January 18th, at 10:00 AM, the Women’s March will organize the People’s March in opposition to the incoming Trump administration. Details on the event are still pending; however, the initial rallying point is 2 15th Street in DC.
The 2017 Women’s March had nearly half a million attendees, with millions rallying across other major cities. The People’s March is meant to draw together a wider coalition of activists and protestors supporting social justice causes. Therefore, attendance may be even greater.
The 2025 All American Inaugural Ball will take place on January 18th at the Capitol Hill Hyatt Regency.
Parallel to the All American Inaugural Ball, Poets and Busboys will host the Peace Ball at the Mead Center for American Theater. A number of congresspeople and high profile activists and artists will be in attendance.
President Elect Trump will host a victory rally at the Capitol One Area on January 19th. The event was only recently announced and further details are pending.
That evening, the Texas Society will host the Black Tie and Boots Ball at the Washington Hilton (1919 Connecticut Ave NW).
The South Carolina Society will hold the Palmetto Presidential Inaugural Ball at the Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture (National Portrait Gallery and the Smithsonian American Art Museum) from 7:00 PM to midnight.
George Washington University will also host the GW Inaugural Ball at the Omni Shoreham Hotel. The festivities are slated to begin at 8:00 PM and last until midnight.
Inauguration Day
The Inaugural swearing-in ceremony will take place at noon on January 20th on the western steps of the Capitol. President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden will attend. President-Elect Trump has invited several world leaders to attend; however, it hasn’t been confirmed whether they will. Historically, only senior diplomatic personnel attend.
The swearing-in ceremony is followed by the signing ceremony within the President’s Room of the Capitol, during which the newly sworn President will sign a number of transitional documents and executive orders. As the first acts of a new administration, this ceremony carries enormous significance.
President-Elect Trump is expected to sign a number of controversial executive orders, including authorizing widespread deportations, a ban on transgender service members, and major tariffs on imported goods. These orders will likely spark protest and unrest in the weeks and months following the Inauguration.
After this ceremony, the President will attend a luncheon with Senate and House leadership within the National Statuary Hall (Capitol Building). Subsequently, the President will move to the eastern steps of the Capitol to review his processional escort before heading to the White House. The procession will take place along Pennsylvania Avenue and the President will most likely travel via the presidential state car (aka “the Bear”).
After the President arrives at the White House, he and select guests will view a parade from a viewing stand in the vicinity of the north lawn of the White House. The parade will comprise military and civilian representatives from each state. This event is expected to begin circa 3:00 PM and conclude the official ceremonies. After this, then President Trump will likely attend a series of inaugural balls.
In NYC’s Washington Square Park, the People’s Forum will organize in support of several social justice causes at the We Fight Back! Rally between 1:00 PM and 5:00 PM. A major theme of the event will be calling for an end to Israel’s military activities in Gaza.
At 6:00 PM, the American Legion will host the Veterans Inaugural Ball at the Westen Hostel (DC Downtown).
Post-Inagural Events
The National March for Life will take place on January 24th, beginning at 11:00 AM. The march’s route has not been made public yet. Although attendance has reached nearly 650,000 attendees in the past, in recent years the event has drawn tens of thousands. As President-Elect Trump has been supportive of limiting and or banning abortion access, this year may see an uptick in attendees.
Risks
Recent Major Incidents
There have been multiple recent high profile events that have implications for the Inauguration:
On December 4th, 2024, Brian Thompson, CEO of UnitedHealthcare, was assassinated in Midtown Manhattan outside the New York Hilton Midtown. The suspect, Luigi Mangione, was arrested on December 9th in Altoona (Pennsylvania). Mangione appears to have been motivated by enmity towards the US healthcare system and medical complications from receiving a back injury. Security personnel are advised that there may be a prolonged period of elevated risk for copycat attacks against executive personnel, both within and outside the healthcare industry.
President-Elect Trump has received donations for the festivities from a number of large tech companies (e.g., Meta, Amazon, OpenAI, and Uber), as well as hosted a number of tech leaders at Mar-A-Lago during after the election. Extremists may be incited by relationships between the incoming administration and corporate leadership.
On January 1st, 2025, at least 14 people were killed and dozens injured when a terrorist drove a pickup truck through a crowd on Bourbon Street in New Orleans. The suspected terrorist, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, flew an ISIS flag on the back of his truck when committing the attack. Jabbar also planted improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in coolers within the vicinity of the Bourbon Street area, two of which have been recovered by the FBI.
ISIS, and its Khorasan branch in particular, have become a resurgent concern among intelligence and public safety officials throughout 2024. The withdrawal of Western forces from Afghanistan in 2021 allowed the terrorist network to set up a strong base of operations in the area.
On January 1st, there was also an attack at the Trump Hotel in Las Vegas. A driver drove a rented Tesla Cybertruck outside the lobby of the hotel before a cache of fireworks, gas canisters, and camping fuel detonated within the vehicle. The driver was killed, but there was limited damage and no further deaths.
The suspect, Matthew Livelsberger, was an active-duty Green Beret. In a letter recovered by authorities, Livelsberger wrote that the act was not intended as a terrorist attack but as a “wake up call” for America. He wanted the country to rally around President-Elect Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
Readers can find extended analysis on these events, as well as related global developments, in this complimentary Base Operations situational awareness report.
Cybersecurity
Readers are advised that major events can be attractive targets for cyber threat actors. Cyber attacks can disrupt air travel, grand transport, and critical infrastructure systems. Although such disruptions may not result in physical damage, they can cause panic and fear while helping fuel the spread of misinformation or disinformation. Threat actors may also use cyber attacks to access restricted information and physical spaces. A successful attack during a major event can also erode trust in public institutions and cause long-term reputational harm.
Google Cloud Security’s 2025 Cybersecurity Forecast places heavy emphasis on “the Big Four” (Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran) utilizing cyber capabilities to further their geopolitical goals. In November 2024, the United Kingdom’s National Cyber Security Center categorized all four nations as “real and enduring threats.” They have invested heavily in their cyber capabilities, often sponsoring groups of hackers to further their agendas. Activities may include espionage, information gathering, and disinformation campaigns.
China achieved a major success between 2022 and 2024 through its Salt Typhoon campaign, penetrating at least nine telecommunication companies in the United States. This enabled Chinese actors to geolocate millions of Americans and record phone calls. Among those targeted include President-Elect Trump, Vice President-Elect Vance, and multiple high-level members of the Biden Administration. The hackers were also able to obtain law enforcement data requests to telecom companies, something which could compromise ongoing terrorism and organized crime investigations. The FBI and CISA (Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Administration) have released guidance on securing smartphones, including recommending the use of end-to-end encryption messaging services (e.g., WhatsApp).
Washington, DC Threat Landscape
As the nation’s capital and home to numerous government buildings, monuments, embassies, universities, advocacy groups, and sites of significance, Washington, DC presents an array of challenges to public safety and security professionals. These challenges are exacerbated during major events when large crowds, the presence of VIPs, and transit disruptions create opportunities for threat actors. The section below will detail some means of reducing exposure to risk, as well as avoiding both crowds and chokepoints.
The map embedded directly below contains information on critical infrastructure and points of interest related to the Inauguration. It’s intended to help with situational awareness and planning. The police station layer has building/district specific contact information. The bottom layer contains CCTV locations and is toggled off by default to prevent the map from becoming crowded and illegible. Please turn it on after zooming in.
The two most pertinent sites during the Inauguration are the Capitol and the White House. Base Operations assesses that there have been 105 unrest events within a 0.75 miles radius of the Capitol building between 1/1/23 and 12/25/24. The Capitol and neighboring congressional offices are a common focal point for protests and rallies. 27 of these events required intervention or involved an act of criminality. The US Supreme Court is also directly east of the Capitol and serves as another site of repeated and frequent unrest.
Since the January 6th riots, the US Capitol Police (USCP) has established an intelligence bureau. This has empowered the USCP to gather and share its own regional intelligence while becoming less reliant on other agencies for alerts and threat analysis. Contact information for the agency can be found here. Throughout January 2025, though, it's recommended to limit visits to or travel in proximity to the Capitol area. Despite enhanced USCP capabilities and interagency security measures, it will still be a high-risk location.
Between 1/1/23 and 12/25/24, Base Operations assessed 343 unrest events within a 0.75 mile radius of the White House. However, only 37 of these events occurred within a 0.4 mile radius of the White House. Base Operations Enterprise Dashboard empowers analysts with granular street-level intelligence, as well as flexible and diverse means of filtering and visualizing events. Reducing the search radius eliminated multiple openair locations (e.g., Franklin Square and McPherson Square) and politically active campuses (e.g., George Washington university) from the analysis to focus more specifically on White House related activity.
Of the 37 events within a 0.4 mile radius of the White House, only one required intervention. The remainder were characterized by a peaceful nature. Readers are advised, though, that protest groups may attempt to block roads in the vicinity of the White House. Outside of causing travel delays, this may inhibit or prevent egress during emergencies. As with the Capitol, it's recommended to avoid visits to or travel in proximity to the White House throughout January. Should this be unavoidable, it’s suggested to plan multiple travel routes ahead of time.
In terms of violent crime, these offenses are largely concentrated in the city’s Northeast and Southeast (Anacostia) quadrants. There are high risk areas in Columbia Heights, Noma, and Truxton Circle. For readers traveling through the city’s center, please be advised that Chinatown and Penn Quarter have been assessed as medium-high risk areas. These neighborhoods both contain or are adjacent to key metro stops for transfers (e.g., Metro Center). Those traveling to the city for the Inauguration are advised to seek accommodation in the city’s Northwest quadrant; namely Glover Park, Georgetown, Foggy Bottom, and Logan Circle. The neighborhoods surrounding American University (also the Northwest quadrant) require longer travel time to the city center, but are also better insulated and removed from potential unrest sites.
The screenshot visualizes violent crime between 1/1/24 and 12/25/24 as hotspots. Dashboard users can also simultaneously assess hotspots in surrounding areas for intercity operations.
Additional Recommendations for Corporate Security Teams
Security professionals operating near Trump Organization properties are advised that these buildings may be at increased risk of political violence or unrest events. It’s strongly recommended to establish lines of communication with the security teams overseeing these properties to facilitate the sharing of critical information and intelligence.
The NYPD and Chicago Police Department have already increased personnel at Trump buildings out of an abundance of caution due to the Las Vegas incident.
In addition to signing up for DC specific alerts, those operating in the DMV area should frequently consult official Inauguration websites for information (please keep in mind, however, they are still being populated with details):
Allocating additional work hours or personnel to bolster both physical security and cybersecurity operations centers.
Allocating resources to patching, upgrading, and assessing IT systems. As part of these efforts, it’s recommended to replace any damaged or unreliable surveillance/sensor systems.
It is not recommended to hire temporary personnel without significant vetting as those wishing to act as insider threats or position themselves close to critical sites may specifically seek out such positions.
Due to the Salt Typhoon breach, it’s advisable to move away from SMS Multifactor Authentication (MFA). Security teams should also consider adopting secure messaging applications that offer end-to-end encryption. Android to iPhone messaging should not be considered secure. some text
Although the breach has been identified, it may still be prudent to change the work numbers of executives and security personnel, as well as replace their phones.
Be aware that terrorists sometimes deploy low-tech means of attack, such as knives and vehicles, and to be on the lookout for suspicious activity. When possible, walk or wait behind anti-ramming barriers.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) provides a comprehensive counterterrorism guide for public safety personnel. Much of the guidance is of relevance to corporate security professionals as well, particularly the section on recognizing and reporting suspicious activity.
Suspicious activity (that is not an emergency), should be immediately reported to a See Something, Say Something hotline.
DHS provides a nationwide directory of these hotlines here.
Information regarding DC’s See Something, Say Something program can be accessed via this page.
Information on contacting the FBI or one of its field offices can be found here. The US Secret Service provides contact information for its field offices on this page of their website. For teams with sites or assets in proximity to Inauguration activities, it may be helpful to establish lines of communication with these agencies beforehand.
Based on your article selection above, we believe you would like these additional resources. Enjoy online or subscribe for our newsletter and get articles delivered straight to your inbox.
.jpeg)
