Executive Summary

This comprehensive threat assessment for the 2025 US Open Tennis Championships (August 18 - September 7, 2025) at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center identifies a MODERATE overall threat level based on converging risk factors.

Base Operations data reveals a BaseScore of 58 within a 0.75-mile radius of the venue. Data was analyzed from August 1st 2024 to August 1st 2025. The area experienced 1,121 total criminal incidents over the 12-month assessment period, with August averaging 99 incidents and September averaging 94 incidents monthly (High Confidence).

The top three threats are: 

(1) Activist disruption with high likelihood of attempted court invasion based on the 2023 environmental activist precedent when Extinction Rebellion activists halted play for 49 minutes and the potential for Israel/Palestine protests due to recent events;

(2) Opportunistic crime targeting the 700,000+ attendees, with theft incidents totaling 391 cases (34.9% of all incidents) and robbery comprising 129 incidents (11.5%) annually; and

(3) Environmental emergencies due to extreme heat and poor air quality, with temperatures potentially exceeding 105°F Heat Index.

The tournament's proximity to the September 11 anniversary, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions including the Israel-Hamas conflict and U.S.-China rivalry, creates an elevated symbolic targeting risk. While no specific credible threats have been identified, the convergence of domestic violent extremists, lone-actor threats, and state-sponsored cyber actors requires vigilance.

Location security impact: higher probability of unrest, petty crime, and targeted violence affecting site security than normal operations.

Executive protection impact: elevated risk of travel disruption, petty crimes, and targeted violence affecting VIPs.

1. Event Snapshot

Event: 2025 US Open Tennis Championships
Dates: August 18 - September 7, 2025
Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
Location: Flushing Meadows-Corona Park, Queens, New York
Coordinates: 40.7502°N, 73.8470°W
Expected Attendance: 700,000+ over 14 days
VIP Presence: International tennis elite, corporate executives, government officials
Historical Significance: Fourth and final Grand Slam of 2025; concludes 4 days before 9/11 anniversary

2. Area & Infrastructure Overview

The USTA National Tennis Center spans 46.5 acres within Flushing Meadows-Corona Park, featuring three major stadiums: Arthur Ashe (23,771 capacity), Louis Armstrong (14,000), and Grandstand (8,125). The complex operates as a semi-hardened facility with VBIED-resistant perimeter fencing and extensive CCTV coverage (High Confidence).

Base Operations geospatial analysis at 0.75 miles reveals a moderate threat urban environment with 891 total criminal incidents (excluding protests and homicide) concentrated in specific patterns. The venue sits at the intersection of major transportation corridors, including the 7 subway line and LIRR, creating significant crowd concentration points at the Mets-Willets Point station.

Critical infrastructure dependencies include Con Edison power grid (vulnerable during heat events), MTA transit systems, and the adjacent Grand Central Parkway/Van Wyck Expressway corridor. The August 31 implementation of the Queens Bus Network Redesign mid-tournament poses logistical risks.

3. Historical Incident Review

Past incidents at the venue demonstrate evolving threat patterns. The 2023 climate activist disruption marked a tactical escalation when protesters used industrial adhesive to affix themselves to stadium infrastructure, requiring specialized NYPD/FDNY removal teams (High Confidence). The 2015 drone crash into Louis Armstrong Stadium, while accidental, exposed aerial vulnerabilities subsequently addressed through counter-UAS measures.

Base Operations historical data shows 1,121 total incidents over the 12-month period, with clear temporal patterns. Property crimes total 403 incidents (36% of all crime), while violent crimes account for 488 incidents (43.5%). Night hours (midnight-6am) show the highest concentration with 299 incidents (26.7% of total), followed by evening hours (6pm-midnight) with 218 incidents (19.4%).

Similar events globally have faced coordinated cyber attacks (2018 PyeongChang Olympics), activist disruptions (2023 Wimbledon), and lone-actor threats (2013 Boston Marathon), establishing clear precedent patterns for security planning.

4. Current Threat Landscape

4.1 Terrorism/Extremism

The Department of Homeland Security assesses the current threat environment as heightened, with domestic violent extremists (DVEs) and homegrown violent extremists (HVEs) posing the primary terrorism risk (High Confidence).

Foreign terrorist organizations continue to view the 9/11 anniversary period as symbolically significant. The tournament's September 7 conclusion creates potential for anniversary-motivated attacks. Iran-backed proxies maintain capability for low-level attacks, though no specific plotting has been detected (Medium Confidence).

The most probable scenario involves a lone actor using readily available weapons (vehicle, firearm, edged weapon) targeting queue areas outside the secure perimeter. Intent remains high among various extremist ideologies, though capability for complex attacks is assessed as low.

4.2 Activist & Protest Activity

Base Operations recorded minimal protest activity (2 peaceful protests) in the past year, but threats may exist given the 2023 precedent. Climate groups, particularly Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil, have explicitly identified Grand Slam tournaments as high-value targets for disruption (High Confidence).

The evolving tactics - from simple court invasion to adhesive-based immobilization - demonstrate sophisticated planning designed to maximize broadcast disruption. Local XR NYC chapter maintains active cells capable of autonomous action with minimal warning indicators.

Additional protest vectors include pro-Palestine demonstrations given NYC's significant activism around Middle East issues, and potential labor actions related to venue operations. The international player roster creates opportunities for politically motivated demonstrations targeting specific nationalities.

4.3 Crime Trends & Opportunistic Threats

Base Operations crime data reveals persistent threat patterns requiring focused mitigation:

TOP CRIME CATEGORIES (Annual Totals):

• Theft: 391 incidents (34.9% of all crime)
• Simple Assault: 282 incidents (25.2%)
• Aggravated Assault: 150 incidents (13.4%)
• Robbery: 129 incidents (11.5%)
• Vehicle Theft: 63 incidents (5.6%)
• Theft from Vehicle: 59 incidents (5.3%)
• Burglary: 28 incidents (2.5%)
• Sex Offenses: 16 incidents (1.4%)

TEMPORAL ANALYSIS:

• Night (12am-6am): 299 incidents (26.7%)
• Evening (6pm-12am): 218 incidents (19.4%)
• Morning (6am-9am): 213 incidents (19.0%)
• Afternoon (12pm-6pm): 94 incidents (8.4%)
• Mid-morning (9am-12pm): 67 incidents (6.0%)

The concentration of 517 incidents (46.1%) during night and evening hours indicates heightened risk during night sessions and post-match egress periods.

‍

4.4 Cyber & Information Risks

While Base Operations doesn't capture cyber incidents, review of OSINT data shows the threat landscape includes:

• Ransomware targeting ticketing/payment systems (70% of sports organizations face annual attacks)
• State-sponsored espionage from China/Russia targeting VIP attendee data
• Hacktivism/DDoS attacks on streaming infrastructure
• Ticketing fraud and phishing campaigns targeting 700,000+ attendees

The 2020 tournament's digital-only operations accelerated cybersecurity improvements, though third-party vendor vulnerabilities remain concerning (Medium Confidence).

4.5 Health/Environmental Factors

Historical August conditions pose risks (Medium Confidence):

• Heat Index regularly exceeding 100°F with climate change intensification
• Canadian wildfire smoke creating hazardous air quality (AQI 150+)
• Potential for heat-related emergencies among 50,000+ daily attendees
• Vector-borne disease risk from nearby wetlands (West Nile virus presence)

The combination of extreme heat and poor air quality could trigger suspension of play and overwhelm medical resources, as demonstrated by 2018 heat-related incidents.

5. Threat Actor Profiles

Crime Distribution Analysis:

• Property Crimes: 403 total incidents
  • Morning concentration: 74 incidents
  • Evening/Night peak: 234 incidents (58% of property crime)
• Violent Crimes: 488 total incidents
  • Morning spike: 139 incidents
  • Night dominance: 183 incidents (37.5% of violent crime)
  • Evening activity: 100 incidents

The data reveals distinct operational patterns: property criminals favor darkness (evening/night), while violent crimes show bimodal distribution with morning confrontations and night-time assaults.

Regional Actors:

• NYC-based Extinction Rebellion cells (High intent/High capability for disruption)
• Lone-actor extremists motivated by diverse grievances (Medium intent/Low capability for mass casualties)
• Organized theft rings targeting tourists (High intent/Medium capability)

Crime Patterns from Base Operations:

• Peak activity 6pm-6am (512 of 873 annual incidents)
• Robbery clusters near transit nodes
• Theft concentration in crowded venues
• Assault spikes during alcohol service periods

6. Recommendations

1. Establish Executive Protection detail for C-suite attendees using Base Operations threat intelligence at 0.75-mile granularity for all travel routes
2. Deploy advanced security screening 48 hours before attendance to identify emerging threats
3. Secure transportation avoiding primary transit corridors during peak threat windows (evening/night)

Strategic Priorities Based on Data:

1. Avoid night hours when possible - 299 incidents (26.7% of all crime) occur midnight-6am
2. Enhanced evening protocols - 218 incidents (19.4%) during 6pm-midnight require more security
3. Anti-theft measures - With 391 theft incidents annually (34.9%), deploying anti-theft teams may mitigate
4. Monitor monthly trends - August (99.23) and September (94.05) show elevated baseline requiring security increase

Resource Allocation:

• Deploy 40% of security resources during night/evening (517 combined incidents)
• Position anti-theft teams at all major congregation points (391 annual thefts)
• Establish rapid response for assault mitigation (432 annual assaults)

7. Appendices

7.1 Acronyms

• AQI: Air Quality Index
• DHS: Department of Homeland Security
• DVE: Domestic Violent Extremist
• FDNY: Fire Department of New York
• HVE: Homegrown Violent Extremist
• IED: Improvised Explosive Device
• LIRR: Long Island Rail Road
• MTA: Metropolitan Transportation Authority
• NYPD: New York Police Department
• REMVE: Racially/Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremist
• UAS: Unmanned Aircraft System
• USTA: United States Tennis Association
• VBIED: Vehicle-Borne IED
• XR: Extinction Rebellion

7.2 Methodology

This assessment integrates Base Operations quantitative threat data with qualitative intelligence from open sources collected via deep research agents. Confidence levels reflect source reliability: High (government/Base Operations verified data), Medium (multiple corroborating sources), Low (single source/extrapolated). The 0.75-mile radius was selected to capture immediate area threats while maintaining analytical focus.

7.3 Data Limitations

Base Operations data current through August 2025. January 2025 shows zero incidents due to processing delays. Cyber threats not captured in Base Operations metrics. Private security incidents may be underreported. Historical patterns may not predict novel threat vectors.

This assessment represents analysis current as of August 11, 2025. Threat conditions may evolve rapidly. Continuous monitoring through Base Operations and coordination with law enforcement partners is essential for maintaining situational awareness throughout the tournament period.

7.4 Crime Statistics Summary

• Total Incidents (12 months): 1,121
• Property Crimes: 403 (36%)
• Violent Crimes: 488 (43.5%)
• Protests: 2 (0.2%)
• Homicide: 1 (0.1%)
• Peak Hour: Night (299 incidents)
• Peak Month Average: July (100.85)
• Tournament Month Average: August (99.23)

7.5 Temporal Distribution

• Night (12am-6am): 299 incidents (26.7%)
• Evening (6pm-12am): 218 incidents (19.4%)
• Morning (6am-9am): 213 incidents (19.0%)
• Afternoon (12pm-6pm): 94 incidents (8.4%)
• Mid-morning (9am-12pm): 67 incidents (6.0%)

7.6 Top Crime Categories

1. Theft: 391 (34.9%)
2. Simple Assault: 282 (25.2%)
3. Aggravated Assault: 150 (13.4%)
4. Robbery: 129 (11.5%)
5. Vehicle Theft: 63 (5.6%)
6. Theft from Vehicle: 59 (5.3%)
7. Burglary: 28 (2.5%)
8. Sex Offenses: 16 (1.4%)

8. References

1. Base Operations Threat Intelligence Platform, accessed August 11, 2025, https://platform.baseoperations.com
2. US Open Security Protocols 2023-2025, USTA Security Division
3. NYPD CompStat Report 110th Precinct, accessed August 10, 2025
4. DHS National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin, June 22, 2025
5. NYC Emergency Management Heat Emergency Plan 2025
6. MTA Queens Bus Network Redesign Implementation Notice, July 2025
7. National Weather Service NYC Heat Climatology Database
8. FBI Domestic Terrorism Threat Assessment 2025
9. Cyber Threat Bulletin: Major Sporting Events, CISA 2025
10. After Action Report: 2023 US Open Security Incident, USTA/NYPD Joint Review
11. Queens Crime Statistics 2020-2025, NYC Criminal Justice Agency
12. Climate Activism Threat Assessment, NJOHSP 2025
13. Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment: Flushing Meadows, NYC DOT 2024
14. Global Terrorism Index 2025, Institute for Economics and Peace
15. Sports Venue Security Best Practices, DHS Protective Security Coordination Division 2025

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