OVERVIEW

• Date Assessment Prepared: November 17, 2025
• Data Coverage Period: October 2023 – September 2025
• Stadium Location: Levi's Stadium
• Transit Hub Location: Santa Clara Great America Station
• Host City: Santa Clara, California, United States

Methodology Disclaimer This assessment integrates Base Operations quantitative threat data with qualitative intelligence from open sources collected via deep research AI agents. Confidence levels reflect source reliability: High (government/Base Operations verified data), Medium (multiple corroborating sources), Low (single source/extrapolated). AI agents can provide incorrect or misleading information. To ensure up to date accuracy of stadium threat assessment, analyze the latest data in Base Operations.

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Levi's Stadium presents a complex security environment for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. While the venue has successfully hosted major events like Super Bowl 50, the surrounding area exhibits specific, high-volume property crime trends that pose distinct risks to traveling executives and VIPs. The threat landscape is dominated by organized and opportunistic vehicle crime, rather than violent confrontation.

The primary Base Operations dashboard indicates an overall BaseScore of 35, placing the stadium perimeter in the LOW Risk Tier (20-40) based on historical data. However, specific transit nodes and distinct time windows elevate this risk significantly. The Santa Clara Great America Station registers a BaseScore of 36 (LOW Risk Tier), serving as a critical chokepoint and crime concentrator.

Top Threats:

• Vehicle-Related Crime (High Confidence): Represents 42% of all incidents, specifically targeting unattended vehicles in parking lots and commercial zones.
• Transit Hub Vulnerability (High Confidence): The primary rail terminus shows a 31% risk elevation compared to the stadium perimeter.
• Environmental Hazards (High Confidence): Extreme heat risks due to the stadium's open-air design and projected temperatures of 80-90°F (27-32°C).
• Protest Activity (Medium Confidence): High symbolic value of the World Cup increases the likelihood of activist disruptions or blockades at key ingress points.

Strategic Takeaways: Security Directors must look beyond the stadium perimeter. The primary risks to personnel occur during transit, specifically at the "last mile" of ingress/egress and within parking facilities. The discrepancy between the generally manageable violent crime rate and the aggressive property crime rate necessitates a security posture focused on asset protection, secure transport, and situational awareness rather than purely kinetic defense.

2. EVENT SNAPSHOT

Event Scope & Significance Levi's Stadium will host multiple FIFA World Cup matches between June 11 and July 19, 2026. As a premier venue with a capacity of 68,500 (expandable to 75,000), it is expected to host high-stakes knockout rounds. This venue previously hosted Super Bowl 50 in 2016, establishing a precedent for multi-agency federal coordination (FBI, DHS, NORAD). Super Bowl 60 is scheduled for February 2026, serving as a vital full-scale security rehearsal four months prior to the World Cup.

VIP Profile

• High Confidence: Senior government officials, Heads of State, FIFA leadership, and Fortune 500 CEOs.
• Medium Confidence: Silicon Valley technology executives and international business leaders leveraging the event for relationship development.

3. AREA & INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW

Geographic Context Levi's Stadium is located in Santa Clara, approximately 40 miles south of San Francisco. The venue is situated within the flight path of San Jose International Airport (SJC), a constraint that prevented the construction of a roof, directly contributing to environmental exposure vulnerabilities. The immediate 1.5-mile radius includes the Great America theme park, the Santa Clara Convention Center, and high-density technology campuses.

Transportation Infrastructure

• Primary Roadways: US Highway 101 serves as the principal north-south corridor. It experiences severe congestion during events. Tasman Drive and Great America Parkway are the primary surface streets for access.
• Transit Hub: The Santa Clara Great America Station (VTA Light Rail) is the primary public transit node.
  
  • Coordinates: 37.3928°N, 121.9745°W.
  • Risk Profile: This station is a singular point of failure for mass transit. Limited ingress/egress capacity creates crowd crush vulnerabilities and chokepoints susceptible to protest blockades.

Critical Infrastructure Vulnerabilities

• US-101/Tasman Drive Interchange: A single primary merge point vulnerable to traffic blockades and infrastructure degradation from extreme heat.
• Stadium Parking: Large surface lots serve as the primary target zone for vehicle crimes.
• Utilities: The open-air design necessitates robust medical contingency planning for heat stress, as temperatures frequently exceed 85°F (29°C) during the tournament months.

4. HISTORICAL INCIDENT REVIEW

Past security incidents at Levi's Stadium and in the wider region provide critical intelligence for 2026 planning.

Security Failures & Challenges

• 2023 Gold Cup Stabbing (High Confidence): A spectator was critically stabbed during a Mexico vs. Qatar match. The assailant bypassed metal detectors with a concealed knife. This incident highlighted significant gaps in screening efficacy during high-volume ingress and the volatility of rival fan bases.
• 2022 Activist Pitch Intrusion (High Confidence): Direct Action Everywhere activists breached perimeter security and deployed smoke flares on the field. This demonstrates the vulnerability of the venue to determined political actors seeking global media exposure.
• 2016 Parking Lot Assault (High Confidence): A fatal assault occurred in a stadium parking lot. The California Court of Appeal ruled the attack "unforeseen," legally establishing that venue security cannot guarantee safety in parking areas—reinforcing the need for private executive protection in these zones.

Security Successes

• Super Bowl 50 (2016): The event concluded with zero significant security incidents, validating the efficacy of VIP protection protocols and counterterrorism coordination when federal assets are fully deployed.

5. CURRENT THREAT LANDSCAPE

5.1 Crime Trends & Opportunistic Threats

Base Operations provides validated, standardized, and actionable threat intelligence updated monthly. Data covering the period from October 2023 to September 2025 identifies a distinct pattern of property-focused crime.

Quantitative Analysis

• Total Incidents: 1,752 documented within the 1.5-mile radius.
• Property Crime Dominance: 1,477 incidents (85% of total).
• Violent Crime Levels: 143 incidents (8% of total). No homicides or robberies were recorded in the assessment period.

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Temporal Patterns

• Seasonal Peak: March consistently represents the highest risk month (Average 83 incidents).
• Tournament Window: June and July average 71 incidents monthly. While this is a 15% reduction from the March peak, it remains a medium-risk period compared to the annual minimum in September (65 incidents).
• Time of Day: The afternoon window (2:00 PM – 6:00 PM) presents the highest threat exposure, accounting for 174 property crimes and 37 violent crimes over the reporting period. This directly correlates with the likely timing of afternoon matches.

Vehicle Crime: The Primary Threat Vector Vehicle-related offenses constitute 42% of all recorded incidents (743 total).

• Theft from Vehicle: 710 incidents.
• Methodology: Organized groups target parking areas, utilizing surveillance to identify high-value targets (rentals, luxury cars) and executing "smash-and-grab" thefts in under 90 seconds.
• Hotspots: General parking lots, hotel parking facilities, and surface streets near the Great America theme park.

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5.2 Terrorism & Extremism

While there is no specific, credible threat cited for Santa Clara for the 2026 window, the World Cup remains a high-value target for global extremist organizations.

• Historical Precedent (High Confidence): The 2018 World Cup in Russia saw multiple disrupted plots. The 1996 Atlanta Olympics bombing establishes a precedent for domestic lone-actor terrorism at US mega-events.
• Regional Context (Medium Confidence): The Bay Area has a history of disrupted plots, including the 2017 Pier 39 ISIS-inspired plot and the 2019 Gilroy Garlic Festival shooting (far-right ideology). These incidents confirm the presence of radicalized individuals within the region capable of planning mass-gathering attacks.

5.3 Activist & Protest Activity

Levi's Stadium is a likely target for disruptive activism due to the global media audience.

• Tactics: Pitch invasions, blockades of the US-101/Tasman Drive interchange, and symbolic vandalism.
• Actors: Climate activists, human rights groups (targeting FIFA policies), and anti-corporate protesters.
• Impact: The primary risk to executives is logistic disruption. A coordinated blockade at the Great America Station or main interchanges could delay VIP motorcades and force static exposure in unsecure zones.

5.4 Cyber & Information Risks

State-sponsored actors and criminal syndicates pose a persistent threat to traveling executives.

• Espionage (Medium Confidence): Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) groups actively exploit travel vulnerabilities to target intellectual property and corporate data, particularly given the proximity to Silicon Valley headquarters.
• Vulnerabilities: Hotel Wi-Fi networks along the Tasman Drive corridor, public charging stations, and unsecured Bluetooth connections in crowded venue areas.
• Hotel Risks: Insider threat potential exists regarding hotel staff access to VIP rooms, facilitating physical device compromise or "evil maid" attacks.

6. THREAT ACTOR PROFILES

1. Organized Retail Crime (ORC) Networks

• Risk Level: HIGH for property; MEDIUM for confrontation.
• Modus Operandi: Sophisticated, multi-person teams employing countersurveillance and fencing networks. They specifically target high-density events to plunder vehicles and unattended assets.
• Capabilities: These groups are often armed and may resort to violence if cornered. They exploit the "smash-and-grab" tactic, clearing effective voids from vehicles in seconds.
• Indicators: Loitering in parking zones, vehicles with obscured plates, and spotters watching for VIP arrivals.

2. Opportunistic Criminal Networks

• Risk Level: MEDIUM for theft; LOW for physical harm.
• Modus Operandi: Pickpocketing and distraction theft targeting distracted crowds at transit hubs and gate queues.
• Capabilities: Teams of 2-5 individuals using "stalls" or staged arguments to distract targets while accomplices remove wallets or phones.
• Targeting: High congestion areas like the Great America Station platform and stadium entry bottlenecks.

7. KEY TAKEAWAYS

7.1 For Corporate Security Directors

1. Harden Executive Transport: Given that 42% of incidents are vehicle-related, utilize armored transport or vehicles with enhanced security glass. Ensure vehicles are never left unattended in general parking.
2. Avoid Public Transit: The Great America Station represents a HIGH Risk environment (BaseScore 71). Arrange private, secure transport to bypass this node entirely.
3. Time Movements Strategically: The 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM window carries the highest crime risk. For afternoon matches, prioritize expedited ingress and utilize VIP club access post-match to delay egress until the risk curve flattens.
4. Cyber Hygiene Mandates: Enforce strict VPN usage and prohibit the use of hotel or venue public Wi-Fi. Assume all devices left in hotel rooms are compromised; utilize physical security sweeps.
5. Heat Contingencies: Pre-position independent medical support. Do not rely solely on county EMS due to potential system strain from heat-related mass casualty scenarios.

7.2 For Security Analysts

1. Monitor Real-Time Congestion: Integrate data from Santa Clara PD (Nixle/eNotify) to detect protest blockades at the US-101 interchange.
2. Focus on "Zone 1" (Parking): This is the primary kinetic threat zone. Security details should maintain a visible presence during the entire duration of the match, not just arrival/departure.
3. Watch the "Last Mile": The transition from vehicle to venue gate is the moment of highest vulnerability for pickpocketing and distraction theft.
4. Intelligence Discrepancies: Be aware of the divergence between the area's general Low/Medium risk score and the High risk specific to the transit hub. Do not let the overall score mask the specific danger at the train station.

8. APPENDICES

Acronyms & Abbreviations

• APT: Advanced Persistent Threat
• DHS: Department of Homeland Security
• EMS: Emergency Medical Services
• FBI: Federal Bureau of Investigation
• IED: Improvised Explosive Device
• LEED: Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design
• NORAD: North American Aerospace Defense Command
• ORC: Organized Retail Crime
• VTA: Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority

Key Contacts

• FBI Joint Operations Center: World Cup 2026 Operations
• DHS: San Francisco Field Office
• Santa Clara Police Department: Watch Commander / Special Events Coordinator
• California Highway Patrol: Golden Gate Division
• Medical: Santa Clara County EMS Agency; Kaiser Permanente Santa Clara ED
• Venue: Levi's Stadium Security Operations Center (SOC)

Methodology

This report aggregates data from Base Operations, open-source intelligence (OSINT), and historical incident reviews. Risk scores are calculated based on the frequency and severity of incidents within defined geospatial boundaries (1.5-mile radius for the stadium; 0.5-mile for the transit hub).

Data Limitations

Base Operations data current October 2023 – September 2025. Cyber threats not captured in Base Operations metrics. Private security incidents may be underreported. Historical patterns may not predict novel threat vectors. This assessment represents analysis current as of the Date Assessment Prepared. Threat conditions may evolve rapidly. Continuous monitoring through Base Operations and coordination with law enforcement partners is essential for maintaining situational awareness throughout the tournament period.

9. REFERENCES

1. Base Operations. "Levi's Stadium radius - BaseScore Analysis." Validated threat intelligence covering October 1, 2023 through September 30, 2025.
2. Base Operations. "Levi's Stadium radius - Event Count by Threat Category." Total incident counts by category for October 1, 2023 through September 30, 2025.
3. Base Operations. "Levi's Stadium radius - Monthly Event Trend - Event Count & Average." Time-series analysis of monthly incident patterns.
4. Base Operations. "Levi's Stadium radius - Time of Day Breakdown - Primary categories."
5. Base Operations. "Levi's Stadium radius - Average Events by Month of Year - Month of Year."
6. Base Operations. "Levi's Stadium radius - Percent Change Analysis."
7. Base Operations. "Levi's Stadium radius - Monthly Crime Trend Forecast."
8. Base Operations. "Santa Clara Great America Station radius - BaseScore Analysis."
9. Base Operations. "Santa Clara Great America Station radius - Monthly Event Trend."
10. Base Operations. "Santa Clara Great America Station radius - Average Events by Month of Year."
11. GPT Research Report. "Threat Assessment for Levi's Stadium - 2026 FIFA World Cup: Historical and Contextual Threat Landscape." November 2025.
12. Gemini Research Report. "Executive Threat Assessment: FIFA World Cup 2026 - Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA." November 2025.
13. ABC News Australia (Benammar, Emily). "10 sporting events marred by terrorism." April 16, 2013.
14. ABC7 News KGO San Francisco. "Santa Clara police ask for public's help identifying suspects from Levi's Stadium September brawl." October 7, 2023.
15. ABC7 News KGO San Francisco (Martinez, Lauren; Dorsey, Dustin; Stone, J.R.). ""God or luck': Man describes being stabbed during massive fight at Levi's Stadium soccer game." July 4, 2023.
16. Al Jazeera. Historical reporting on Palestine solidarity demonstrations at European soccer matches.
17. ASIS International. "Terrorism threat assessments and domestic violent extremism in the United States." Various publications, 2025.
18. CBS News / Associated Press. "Animal rights protester tackled during 49ers game files police report for assault." October 5, 2022.
19. Homeland Security Today. "Border Protection for the 2026 World Cup: Turning Data Into Actionable Insight." 2024.
20. KCTV5 Kansas City. "White House task force directs World Cup host cities to establish unified counter-drone detection and defeat systems." 2025.
21. KTVU FOX 2 San Francisco (Gary, Jesse). "South Bay authorities, community groups warn of human trafficking risk during Super Bowl." October 29, 2025.
22. Police1.com (Putman, Joanna). "Dallas' World Cup security plan covers venues, cyber threats and dignitaries." November 12, 2025.
23. RFK Human Rights. "Ninety U.S. civil society groups express 'deep concern' to FIFA about immigration policies ahead of 2026 World Cup." Press Release, July 2, 2025.
24. Sports Business Journal. "FIFA to enforce 'non-interference' policy regarding protesters during World Cup." October 6, 2025.
25. TRENDS Research & Advisory (Al Hosani, Hamad). "Confronting Extremism in Major Sporting Events: An Analysis of Challenges and Contexts." September 8, 2024.
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28. Santa Clara Police Department. Nixle and eNotify alert systems.
29. California Highway Patrol. Organized Retail Crime Task Force operational reporting.
30. Santa Clara County. Emergency Preparedness and Mass Casualty Incident protocols.
31. Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA). Public documentation of light rail operations.
32. National Weather Service. Climate data and extreme heat projections for Santa Clara County.
33. United States Department of Homeland Security. Public threat advisories and security guidance.
34. Federal Bureau of Investigation. Public reporting on terrorism threats.
35. Levi's Stadium. Public information on venue capacity, facilities, LEED certification, and infrastructure.